UMAS: IMO Intersessional Working Group Made Little Headway on GHG strategy
The fifteenth Intersessional Working Group on Greenhouse Gases (ISWG GHG 15) that concluded last week left key details undecided, says advisory service company UMAS.
The meeting was the final working group meeting before the 80th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) this week. MEPC 80 is a critical moment for the IMO because it coincides both with the adoption of a Revised GHG Reduction Strategy (Revised Strategy), as well as being the point that a set of policy measures key for enabling that strategy, move through to phase 3 - the stage that will see their finalisation.
As the IMO moves to finalise its revised strategy at MEPC 80, UMAS says the details that remain undecided include:
• The Levels of Ambition (LOA) for the Revised Strategy and in particular whether the Revised Strategy ambitions are aligned with a pathway that would limit global temperature increase to 1.5.
• The commitment to a lifecycle coverage of the emissions, and avoidance of shifting emissions from sea to land
• Whether or not the Revised Strategy represents a commitment to a just and equitable transition
• When the mid term measures might be adopted and enter into force.
The drafting forwarded to MEPC 80 includes some further narrowing down of options, however there are still large ranges on key parameters for example the 2030 and 2040 interim GHG reduction targets (now proposed to be called ‘indicative checkpoints’). The current leading proposal for this is a 20% GHG reduction in 2030 and 70% GHG reduction in 2040, likely on a well-to-wake basis.
If these numbers solidify in the strategy, it will not be possible to say the IMO’s GHG reduction strategy is directly or transparently aligned with the 1.5 temperature goal, says UMAS.
“Like the emissions they hope to reduce, much remains in the air,” says Dr Aly Shaw, Policy Lead at UMAS. “And like some of the most vulnerable climate areas, the Members states too, found themselves poles apart on key issues. As all eyes turn to MEPC 80, the Member States must strive to deliver a strategy that is 1.5 aligned and committed to a just and equitable transition for shipping.”
The other key items that remain under debate include the shortlisting of the mid-term measures and the way equitable/fair/just transition is included and referenced in both the Revised Strategy and in relation to mid-term measures. Although there was significant and coordinated opposition to the levy proposals moving forwards for finalisation from MEPC 80, there was a majority who supported this to happen, and GHG pricing is currently on track to move forwards. There was a majority supporting that the IMO’s timeline for adoption of the mid-term measures is by 2025.
Opening MEPC 80, IMO Secretary-General Kitack Lim said: "This is a historic moment in which all of you have a role to play. The 2023 IMO GHG Strategy will be your legacy, for which your children and grandchildren will be grateful. The time for IMO to demonstrate its global leadership is now.”
