Moore Stephens Advocates Dynamic Risk Analysis

Forecasting techniques in shipping have at last become as dynamic as the shipping industry itself, according to Chris Chasty, head of the shipping industry group at leading accountants and consultants Moore Stephens. Moore Stephens has been using its recently developed Dynamic Risk Solutions (DRS) risk analysis service to analyze major projects for clients. Writing in the latest issue of the Moore Stephens newsletter, the bottom line, Chasty says, "It helps increase confidence in project planning. Owners and their backers can quantify the risks properly, whether they are looking at new routes, new ships or new charters." Chasty expects both bankers and shipowners to increasingly use DRS to assess projects. "Knowing a likely outcome is one thing. Measuring how likely that outcome is provides a lot more comfort," he says. Chasty accepts that many owners still rely on gut feeling to get it right. But he points out, "The combination of statistical theory and modern computers now makes risk analysis easier than ever before. Advanced software can now be used to predict a range of outcomes for a particular project, and the likelihood of any given outcome, making risk assessment far more accurate."