Logistics Confidence News

The index that tracks shipper and freight forwarder confidence in the activity of the U.S.-Europe and Asia-Europe shipping lanes hit its lowest level in December in the index's nearly four-year history, reports Reuters. It has hit by lower margins for European freight forwarders such as Denmark's DSV because of overcapacity in shipping. The "Stifel Logistics Confidence Index," published by U.S. investment firm Stifel Financial Corp. and U.K.-based consultancy Transport Intelligence showed particularly low confidence in the transport business along the Asia-Europe routes where spot freight rates were barely profitable for shipping companies for much of last year. The Index posted a score last month of 45.4, continuing what has been a months-long decline.

The Stifel Logistics Confidence Index for May indicated some improvements from April’s decline. In particular, the six-month outlook appears bright as airfreight gained 2.8 points to 63.4 and sea freight increased 2.1 points to 62.9. Overall, the total index increased 1.1 points to 57.4. Even though this is down 0.6 points from one year ago, it is still 6.7 points higher than May 2013. Airfreight continues to lead the optimism for both the six-month outlook as well as for the present. Sea freight however, remains troublesome for the present and while some ports have settled labor issues, other issues such as the rise of the mega-vessel and larger shipping alliances are straining port operations.

Little month-to-month change as the November Stifel Logistics Confidence Index increased only 0.1 points to 59.0. Compared to November 2013, the overall index is up 1.9 points however, this is down from the October year-over-year increase of 3.8 points as noted in last month’s analysis. Is this an indication of an economic slowdown or is it simply due to the time of year? The present situation sub-index suggests it could be related to an economic slowdown. For airfreight, November 2013 data indicates strong gains were made. The airfreight present situation sub-index increased 2.8 points to 50.9 and all lanes except US to Europe noted good increases. In comparison, for November 2014, the airfreight present situation sub-index increased 0.7 points to 54.1.

The latest U.K. Logistics Confidence Index commissioned by Barclays and Moore Stephens reveals that confidence in the U.K. logistics sector remains high but more controlled over the past six months as familiar challenges persist. The index has risen by almost 36% since its lowest point in late 2012, despite a slight dip in confidence in the latest survey compared to 2013. Almost three-quarters of logistics operators are planning significant capital expenditure over the coming months…

Little change occurred in the latest monthly Stifel Logistics Confidence Index. Slipping only 0.1 points from 57 in March to 56.9 this month, the overall index did however favor improvements in the present situation increasing 1.6 points to 51.8. However, expectations for the next six months dimmed falling 1.8 points to 62 for April. The monthly airfreight data is such an example. For April, the present situation increased 0.5 points to 49 whereas expectations declined 2 points to 61.3. The present situation indicates a current market in contraction due to the index figure below the 50-level.

The Stifel Logistics Confidence Index continued its downward trend in May as it fell for the second consecutive month. Compiled by Transport Intelligence, the overall index, which combines the current situation with future expectations, was down 0.8 points from April to 50.7 in May and was 1.3 points lower compared with the same month in 2012. Yet, even with deteriorating confidence, the Logistics Confidence Index registered above the 50 threshold, indicating growth, for the fourth consecutive month. Lucy Palmer, Economist at Ti, observed, "Air forwarders have continued to express less optimism compared with sea forwarders since the index began in March 2012…

Following five consecutive monthly increases, the overall Stifel Logistics Confidence Index fell 1 index point to 51.5 in April. Despite the decline, the index remained above the significant 50 mark, denoting expansion, for the third consecutive month. However, a look at the present situation reveals that both air and sea freight volumes are below those expected relative to the time of year. Although the index for sea freight remained virtually flat at 47.4 in April (down 0.1 points from March), it still indicates a decline in volumes. Meanwhile, the index for current air freight volumes fell 1.2 points to 42.0 for the month, indicating an even greater decline relative to the volumes expected for the time of year.

The Stifel Logistics Confidence Index increased for the fourth consecutive month in February 2013, according to the latest survey undertaken by Transport Intelligence. The index combining both the current and expected situation rose 3.3 points to 52.1 from 48.8 in January. Both sea and air forwarders indicated an improvement in the present environment compared with January. The index for air freight increased 3.4 points to 43.1 in February, while the increase in sea freight was slightly less marked, up 1.7 points to 48.3. The approach of the Chinese New Year was apparent, as the Asia to Europe lane for both air and sea saw a greater improvement than other routes.

Stifel Nicolaus Logistics Confidence Index suggests the current market remains weak, however the outlook is increasingly positive. The Stifel Nicolaus Logistics Confidence Index increased for the third consecutive month in January 2013, according to the latest industry study undertaken by Transport Intelligence. The overall index, an average of the current and expected situation, increased 0.8 points to 48.8 from 48.0 in the last month of 2012. Increased sentiment among sea forwarders drove the overall increase. In terms of the current logistics situation, the sea freight index increased 1.8 points to 46.6 in the first month of 2013. Meanwhile, air freight continued to lag, down 0.8 points to 39.7. At below the 50.0 mark, both indices indicate weaker volumes relative to the time of year.