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Monday, November 19, 2018

Simon Heaney News

Trade Wars Threaten to Derail Container Revival: Drewry

Image: Drewry Shipping Consultants Limited

The risk to container shipping from US-led trade wars is currently low, but potentially very damaging, according to the latest edition of the Container Forecaster published by global shipping consultancy Drewry. “In the March report we said that we were hopeful of a peaceful resolution, but at this point in time we must accept that tariffs are going to become a reality. The only question now is: how severe will they be?” said Simon Heaney, senior manager, container research at Drewry and editor of the Container Forecaster.

Drewry Downgrades Forecast for Container Demand

(Photo: Drewry)

A gloomier world economic outlook and rising trade tensions have forced Drewry to downgrade its forecast for container demand over the next five years, according to the global shipping consultancy’s latest edition of the Container Forecaster.Drewry’s long-term supply and demand prognosis for carriers has deteriorated since the last report. Previously, the company’s global supply-demand index was expected to take incremental steps upwards through 2022, by which time the industry would at long last be close to equilibrium.However…

Carrier On-Time Percentage Increased in Feb

    (Image courtesy of Drewry)

The on-time percentage of liner services improved slightly in February, but the ships that missed their berthing window missed it by a wider margin due in large part to labor strife at West Coast U.S. ports,  according to this month's Carrier Performance Insight from Drewry. 55% of ships in the three key East-West trades arrived within +/- 24 hours from the advertised ETA, up 6.6% against January’s historic low of 49%. The average deviation from the ETA to actual arrival, however, extended from 1.9 days in January to 2.1 days in February.

Big Ship Orders Keep Focus on Carrier Supply Pressures

Attempts by carriers to tackle the capacity overhang are being undone as new orders for Ultra Large Container Vessels (ULCVs) continue to make the headlines, according to Drewry’s monthly report Sea & Air Shipper Insight. The news that China Shipping Container Lines will join Maersk in the super-size containership club following board approval for five 18,000 teu ships is further proof of the demand for these fuel-efficient ULCVs among the major lines – it is just a question of when and how many will make the leap. However, while these latest new orders won’t actually hit the water for years, their psychological impact is to keep the focus on capacity and the big question of how on earth carriers will be able to absorb it all.

Freight Rate Trends: Upcoming Free Supply Chain Webinar

Image courtesy of Drewry

Drewry Maritime Research says it is hosting a free webinar for supply chain professionals to explain recent trends in ocean & air freight rates and provide an outlook for the future. The event will be hosted by Simon Heaney, Senior Manager, and Philip Damas, Director Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. Both executives will be available to take questions following a 20 minute presentation. This analysis will be provided by reference to information available in Drewry's Sea & Air Shipper Insight report.

Liner Service Reliability Jumps to 64%

Pic: Maersk Line

According to Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, liner shipping service reliability on the three East-West trades showed an aggregate on-time performance of 64% in March - a five-month high. According to Carrier Performance Insight, the online schedule reliability tool provided by Drewry, this was 8.5% up on the February figure - and the second best aggregate since the new data series begun last May. The latest result represents an 8.5 percentage point gain over February and is the second best average (after October 2014) since the start of the new data series in May 2014.

Boxed In

“These new orders and speculation of more to come could be having a negative impact on rates right now.” Simon Heany, Drewry

It is impossible to view the global container shipping business without looking at it through the prism of vessel capacity being added to the market. What happens over the next two years will be a direct result of the glut of newbuildings that are flooding into service and wrecking freight rates. Just consider these numbers. During the first four months of 2013, Alphaliner puts the new containership deliveries at 496,000 TEUs. According to data supplied by PR News Service ComPort, almost 250,000 TEUs of that will be comprised of vessels with a nominal capacity of 10,000 TEUs and up.

Liner Reliability Bucks Downward Trend - Drewry

Drewry containership reliability by trade, March 2016.

Ocean carriers bucked a five-month downwards trend by improving container service reliability in March, according to Carrier Performance Insight, the online schedule reliability tool provided by Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. The average on-time performance in March gained 5.5 points against February to reach 68% with an average deviation from the expected arrival at port of 1.0 days. The improvement seen in March was expected as services returned to closer to operational normality after Chinese New Year in February when carriers tinkered with ever more void sailings to mitigate weaker demand.

Liner Reliability Bucks Downward Trend

Graph: Drewry Shipping Consultants Limited

Ocean carriers bucked a five-month downwards trend by improving container service reliability in March, according to Carrier Performance Insight, the online schedule reliability tool provided by Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. The average on-time performance in March gained 5.5 points against February to reach 68% with an average deviation from the expected arrival at port of 1.0 days. The improvement seen in March was expected as services returned to closer to operational normality after Chinese New Year in February when carriers tinkered with ever more void sailings to mitigate weaker demand.

Containership Reliability Reaches New High

Photo: Maersk Line

Container service reliability reached a data-series high in April with the aggregate on-time performance for the three key East-West trades rising to 67.6%, up by 4.1 percentage points on March, according to Carrier Performance Insight , the online schedule reliability tool provided by Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. The previous best since Drewry’s new data series started in May 2014 was achieved in October last year (64.3%) after which the industry struggled to cope with heavy port congestion on the US West Coast and the implementation of new alliance partnerships and services.

Carrier Schedule Reliability Improves in April

Graph: Drewry Shipping Consultants Limited

Transport consultant Drewry’s Carrier Performance Insight (CPI) for April records 67.6%, up by 4.1 percentage improvement on the previous month in the aggregate reliability of ships on the main Asia-Europe, transpacific and transatlantic trades. The previous best since Drewry’s new data series started in May 2014 was achieved in October last year (64.3%) after which the industry struggled to cope with heavy port congestion on the US West Coast and the implementation of new alliance partnerships and services.

Hong Kong Strike Impairs Ship and Container Reliability

Ship-level and container-level reliability Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) decreased in the second quarter of 2013, according to Drewry’s quarterly report Carrier Performance Insight, just published. Despite improvements in East-West trade reliability, the average on-time performance of containerships across all trades covered declined to 70.5%, down from 72.8% in the first quarter. The average on-time performance has now declined for two consecutive quarters and the latest result was the worst since the first quarter of 2012 (69.3%) and was 2.8 percentage points lower than recorded in the same quarter last year. It was expected that…

Six-Month High for Service Reliability

Graph: Drewry Research

Ocean carriers achieved a six-month high for liner service reliability in May, according to Carrier Performance Insight, the online schedule reliability tool provided by Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. The on-time average of 76.0% for the 10 trades covered was a 4.1 point improvement on April, representing the third straight month-on-month rise. Along with the better on-time performance so to there was an improvement for the average deviation from the expected arrival at port, which came down from 0.9 days in April to 0.8 days in May, the lowest it has been since December 2015.

Container Reliability Declines for Third Consecutive Quarter

Drewry’s Carrier Performance Insight report, just published, revealed a disappointing drop in performance for both ship-level and container-level reliability Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) in the third quarter. Containership reliability dipped below 70% for the first time since the beginning of 2012 as weaker performances in the Asia trades to and from Europe and the Middle East/Indian Subcontinent contributed to a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.4 percentage points to 69.5%.

Chinese Slowdown Hitting Container Shipping

Image: The Hanjin Group

The slowdown in China’s economy poses some risks for container shipping, according to Drewry Maritime Research. According to a new report from Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd, the risks from a slowdown in Chinese consumption to container shipping are far smaller than for the dry bulk sector, but they are not inconsiderable and will contribute to slowing world box growth. Container-shipping lines, already concerned about demand from struggling economies in Europe and many emerging markets, can now add China to their list of problems.

Liner Reliability Slips for First Time in 6 Months

Source: Drewry Carrier Performance Insight (http://cpi.drewry.co.uk)

Breaking a run of six consecutive months of improvement, container service reliability across the three main East-West trades declined in July, falling by 4.0 percentage points from June to 73.3%, according to Carrier Performance Insight, the online schedule reliability tool provided by Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. The latest overall monthly performance was the result of lower reliability scores in the Asia-Europe and Transpacific trades, although service punctuality for the far smaller Transatlantic route was raised to a new data series high.

Maersk, Hamburg Sud Lead Reliability Rankings

Aggregate Schedule Reliability of Top 20 Container Carriers, Source: Drewry’s Carrier Performance Insight

Maersk Line and Hamburg Sud are ranked as the two most reliable container shipping carriers, according to performance rankings published in the new online version of the Carrier Performance Insight (http://cpi.drewry.co.uk) published by shipping consultancy Drewry. Maersk Line and Hamburg Süd were by far the most reliable carriers in the three months to October 2014 with overall on-time performances of 80.4% and 78.5% respectively. The next best performing carrier was Cosco at 69.9%…

East-West Freight Rates Remain Down After Chinese New Year

Image courtesy of Drewry

Following three consecutive months of price rises, freight rates on the East-West trades declined in February, according to Drewry’s online Container Freight Rate Insight. Rates came under most pressure on the Asia-Europe trade, which weakened following a meteoric rise in the run-up to the Chinese New Year. Drewry’s Asia-Europe Westbound Freight Rate Index dropped 12% in February to $2,992 per 40ft container, while weekly data from the World Container Index assessed by Drewry indicates that the pricing erosion has continued into March.

Drewry: Container Service Reliability Falls

Containership reliability took a small step backwards in October as the average on-time performance across all trades reached 77.9%, according to Carrier Performance Insight, the online schedule reliability tool provided by Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. The latest result is based on reliability across 10 deep-sea container trades, instead of the three East-West trades as was previously measured up to and including September 2015, when the aggregate on-time result was 79.9%. The expanded coverage is part of an upgrade to Drewry’s Carrier Performance Insight, which now covers 69 ports and 809 port pairs, and also includes new functionality to download data from the monthly release in both Excel and PDF formats.

Drewry Predicts Modest Growth for Container Shipping

Image: Drewry Shipping Consultants Limited

The outlook for the container shipping market in 2018 and 2019 is a combination of healthy demand growth that will outpace the fleet; resulting in a better supply-demand balance and slightly higher freight rates and profits for carriers, according to the latest edition of the Container Forecaster published by global shipping consultancy Drewry. “The bad news for carriers is that they are unlikely to see the very strong demand growth rates of early 2017 for the foreseeable future.

Drewry: Container Reliability Stable in November

Drewry containership reliability by trade, November 2015 (Source: Drewry Carrier Performance Insight)

Containership reliability was broadly unchanged in November as the average on-time performance across all trades slipped by just 0.8 percentage points against October to 77.2 percent, according to Carrier Performance Insight, the online schedule reliability tool provided by Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. Six of the 10 trades covered recorded month-on-month on-time improvements in November, but worse performances in each of the three East-West trades and in the Asia-South America route – the only North-South trade to decline – dragged down the overall reliability performance.

Drewry: Container Reliability Stable in November

Graph: Drewry Supply Chain Advisors

Containership reliability was broadly unchanged in November as the average on-time performance across all trades slipped by just 0.8 percentage points against October to 77.2%, according to Carrier Performance Insight, the online schedule reliability tool provided by Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. Six of the 10 trades covered recorded month-on-month on-time improvements in November, but worse performances in each of the three East-West trades and in the Asia-South America route – the only North-South trade to decline – dragged down the overall reliability performance.

Trade War All About the Eastbound Transpacific -BIMCO

© vladsv / Adobe Stock

When two of the world’s top trading partners get entangled in a stand-off, where the outbreak of a trade war could become the extended tool of intense negotiations, BIMCO says we’d better prepare for what may come while hoping that it will never take place.The U.S. is China’s largest trading partner measured by value – and China is the largest one-country trading partner that the U.S. has.“The global shipping industry naturally gets concerned when two nations of huge importance to most shipping sectors get in the ring to fight a trade war – gloves off…

Maritime Reporter Magazine Cover Nov 2018 - Workboat Edition

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