Top 8 Market (& Maritime) Movers of 2025

By Anna Szymanski December 31, 2025

This past year won’t soon be forgotten. In 2025, conventional thinking about economics and investor behavior was frequently challenged, as dramatic changes in technology, energy and geopolitics drove markets in often unexpected ways.

As the clock turns to 2026, here are 8 general market movers that can help explain what happened in 2025 and what it might mean for 2026 and beyond.

1. Trade Turmoil

President Donald Trump’s "America First" agenda proved to be a key market driver in 2025 – particularly in the first half of the year – as the U.S. president wasted no time delivering on his campaign promises to shift from free trade to "fair" trade.

U.S. trade policy uncertainty – as measured by the Baker-Bloom-David model – hit an all-time high after Trump announced sweeping import tariffs on April 4, "Liberation Day."

The index has since eased, but it remains in historically elevated territory, almost double the peaks of Trump's first administration.

2. Tariff Throwdown

At this time last year, the average effective tariff rate on imports into the U.S. was around 2.5%. It is now almost 17%, the highest level since 1935. This represents the biggest U.S. tax increase as a share of GDP in more than 30 years.

To the surprise of many, the U.S. economy and others around the world have coped remarkably well despite this massive change in America’s trade strategy. U.S. GDP grew at a healthy annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter. Will consumers and businesses be as resilient next year? That remains an open question.

3. Dollar's Drop

The consensus among Wall Street analysts at the start of 2025 was that the dollar would strengthen as the "U.S. exceptionalism" narrative and Trump administration’s onshoring attracted waves of capital from around the world.

Instead, the dollar USD= has fallen around 10% against a basket of major currencies. By the end of June, it was down 12% - its worst first half of any calendar year since the era of free-floating exchange rates began over half a century ago.

4. The "Magnificent Seven"

The "Magnificent Seven" U.S. technology stocks have dramatically outperformed in 2025, fuelled by the euphoria surrounding artificial intelligence, but as the year progressed, investor concerns grew regarding hyperscalers’ massive, increasingly debt-fuelled AI capex outlays.

The share price performance of Oracle ORCL.N reflects this trajectory. The U.S. cloud computing giant's stock rose 36% in a single day in September on positive revenue projections, then began to slide, dropping 15% in two days earlier this month - a magnitude of decline seen only during the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2008 global financial crisis and the 1990s dot‑com crash.

If Oracle is a bellwether of investors' broader sentiment about AI, there could be a rocky road ahead for the tech-powered equity rally.

5. Yukon Cornelius Would be Proud

Silver & Gold prices have soared in 2025, as safe-haven demand and bets on further U.S. interest rate cuts have fuelled a sharp rally in precious metals.

SilverXAG=eclipsed $80 an ounce for the first time ever on December 29, driven by strong industrial demand, persistent supply shortfalls, and momentum-driven buying.

While gold prices XAU=have fallen since hitting a record-high above $4,500 an ounce last week, the yellow metal looks set to deliver its biggest annual gain since 1979.

The risk now is that mean reversion will rear its ugly head in 2026, resulting in a sharp and painful pullback.

6. Europe's Call to Arms

European defense stocks have more than tripled in value since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a war now heading into its fourth year. The sector has gained more than 50% in 2025 alone, spurred by the announcement that Germany will spend up to a trillion euros on defense and infrastructure.

This price move speaks to many of this year's global themes, including increasing U.S. isolationism, rising geopolitical tensions and expectations for a European economic reboot.

And it also helps explain some other notable 2025 market moves, including the surge in the euro/dollar rate EUR=, the outperformance of European stocks versus Wall Street and rising long-dated German bond yields.

7. Oil Price Volatility

Oil prices LCOc1jumped from $70 to $81 a barrel after Israel launched a bombing campaign in Iran on June 12, sparking fears that Tehran would block the all-important Strait of Hormuz. But the spike was short-lived as the so-called "12-day war" ended swiftly.

This speaks to a longer-term trend: geopolitical tensions still create volatility in energy prices, but price shifts only stick when supply is disrupted, not simply threatened. And even then, global energy markets are increasingly able to adapt, reducing the risk that a surprise event will cause a persistent imbalance between supply and demand.

8. Power Up

The U.S. battery storage market has been the hottest segment of the American energy market in 2025, with capacity on track to jump by a record 12 gigawatts to a total of roughly 40 GW. Meanwhile, China's exports of batteries and battery energy storage systems (BESS) hit a record in 2025, soaring by 24% from the year before over the first nine months of the year.

Utility-scale storage systems allow power firms to make better use of renewable power supplies by storing surplus solar output that can then be discharged during peak power demand periods. Battery storage will be a key trend to track in the coming year.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, the Editor in Charge of Reuters Open Interest)