Dark Tanker Fleet Activity Morphs

A new analysis from Windward reports a 20% decrease in the volume of direct oil voyages out of Russia in Q3 2024 compared to Q2.

Q3 2024 marked the lowest monthly average of direct voyages from Russia to China since March 2023. When compared to Q2 2024 averages, there is a decrease of 12% in such voyages.

This is the first total volume decrease since the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine and is likely related to the slight decrease in port calls in Russia this quarter.

However, Windward has detected new ship-to-ship (STS) transfer hubs for vessels that have made a port call in Russia. For the first time since April 2022, Windward says there were seven commodity STS meetings in the Aegean Sea near Greek islands of Lesbos and Chios. Meanwhile, during Q3 2024, the existing hub near Kalamata in southern Greece has seen a 93% decrease compared to the monthly average of last year - probably due to the Greek Navy's efforts to fight the STS hub off its coast.

Q3 2024 showed a 340% increase for STS engagements in the Black Sea compared to Q2 2024. "While this seems like a drastic increase from last quarter, that figure might be affected by GPS jamming in the area, and it's still much lower when compared to the same timeframe last
year (75% decrease)."

And for the first time ever, Windward flagged GNSS manipulation by LNG carriers in Q3 2024.

September 2024 showed the highest number of port calls in Russian LNG facilities in the last year, 20% higher than the monthly average since October 2022. This corresponds with an increase in LNG carrier voyages through the Barents Sea, potentially an indication of action out of the newly opened LNG2 facility in Utrenniy.

Grain smuggling also increased in Q3. When the Russia-Ukraine grain deal collapsed in July 2023, the monthly average of smuggling typology instances increased 145%, and preliminary Q3 2024 data indicates September will mark the highest monthly average since then.

In Q3 2024, gray and dark fleet numbers remained fairly consistent, with +930 gray fleet vessels and +1,500 dark fleet vessels. The top three flags for both the dark and gray fleets are Panama, Liberia and Russia, reports Windward. The top four destinations for the dark fleet are Russia, US, Turkey and China.

Thirty-six maritime companies were added to sanctions lists during Q1 2024, a 140% increase on Q4 2023.