Going Nuclear in Indian Ocean
As India, Pakistan and perhaps China develop their naval nuclear forces, they will enter increasingly murky waters, says a report published in the National Interest.
These countries will likely deploy a significant number of nuclear weapons at sea in the Indian Ocean. This could further destabilize already unstable nuclear relationships, creating a real risk of a sea-based exchange of nuclear weapons.
South Asia as the most likely location of nuclear conflict as Pakistan is one of the most unstable nations in the world.
India has a “no first use” (NFU) nuclear-weapons policy of sorts. But Pakistan refuses to adopt an NFU policy and indeed has announced a long list of actions that it claims would justify a nuclear response against India.
Both India and Pakistan are now in the process of moving their nuclear weapons capabilities into the maritime realm. Islamabad may be tempted to conduct a demonstration nuclear attack at sea, believing it will not be escalated on land.
China is also a major player in the nuclearization of the Indian Ocean. China's role in creating a nuclear-armed Pakistan is a big factor in the distrust that characterizes the India-China security relationship.
To enjoy an effective sea-based deterrent vis-à-vis China, India’s other prospective nuclear adversary, New Delhi has to develop larger ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) with greater missile carriage capacity and more powerful nuclear reactors.
The three-party nuclear rivalry we will soon see in the Indian Ocean is likely to be more unstable, and potentially far more dangerous.
The US also has a potentially significant role in facilitating nuclear stability in the Indian Ocean.
